Commit based on feel
If the buyer has not confirmed budget, approvers and a date, it is not commit.
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Sales forecast template and forecasting methods
A sales forecast predicts how much revenue will close in a period, deal by deal, and a forecasting methodology is the rule you use to make that prediction consistent. This template gives you a deal-level forecast sheet with commit, best case and gap to target, and compares five forecasting methods so you can combine the two or three that suit your data.
What it is and when to use it
Every forecast answers the same question: what will we close this period, and how sure are we? The method is what makes the answer repeatable. Without one, the forecast is whatever the most optimistic AE says on Friday.
The five methods most B2B teams use are weighted pipeline (each deal's value multiplied by a stage probability), forecast categories (each deal called as commit, best case or pipeline), historical run rate (what you closed in similar periods), deal-level judgement (the AE and manager review each deal against evidence), and activity-based forecasting (meetings and opportunities expected from outbound, converted at your rates). Each has a weakness, so most teams use two or three and compare them.
For a team with a short history, start with forecast categories plus a weighted pipeline check. Add historical run rate once you have four or more quarters of clean data. Activity-based forecasting is most useful for the quarter after next, when today's outbound meetings become tomorrow's pipeline.
Who uses it
Sales managers
Run the weekly forecast call from the deal sheet and challenge each commit against evidence.
Founders
Use the summary for cash flow, hiring decisions and board updates.
Account executives
Call your own deals honestly, with a next step and a date for each.
The sales forecast template
Every section and column, with what to write in each. Use the fill-in version below to type straight into it and copy, print or download the result.
1. Forecasting methods compared
Choose your primary method and a check method. Write which you use at the top of every forecast.
| Method | How it works | Best for | Weakness | Use it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weighted pipeline | Deal value x stage probability, summed | Teams with clean stages and probabilities from history | Treats every deal in a stage the same | Primary or check |
| Forecast categories | Each deal called commit, best case or pipeline | Most B2B teams, especially with few deals | Depends on AE judgement | Primary or check |
| Historical run rate | Last periods' results, adjusted for seasonality and growth | Stable businesses with several years of data | Misses changes in the market or team | Check |
| Deal-level review | Manager and AE test each deal against evidence | Large, complex deals | Time consuming | For deals over a threshold |
| Activity-based | Expected meetings x meeting to opportunity rate x win rate x deal size | Next quarter and new teams | Depends on stable conversion rates | For future quarters |
2. Deal forecast sheet
One row per open deal expected to close this period. Add rows as needed.
| Deal | Stage | Amount | Close date | Category | Stage probability | Weighted amount | Next step and date | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deal name | Pipeline stage | Dollar value | Expected signature date | Commit, best case or pipeline | From history | Amount x probability | What happens next, by when | What could stop it |
| Deal name | Stage | Amount | Date | Category | Probability | Weighted | Next step | Risk |
| Deal name | Stage | Amount | Date | Category | Probability | Weighted | Next step | Risk |
3. Forecast summary
| Line | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Target for the period | Dollar value | From the sales plan |
| Closed won to date | Dollar value | Already signed |
| Commit | Dollar value | Closed won plus deals called commit |
| Best case | Dollar value | Commit plus deals called best case |
| Weighted pipeline | Dollar value | Check against commit |
| Gap to target | Target minus commit | What has to come from best case or new deals |
4. Forecast rules
| Field | What to write |
|---|---|
| What counts as commit | For example: buyer has confirmed budget, approvers and a signature date, and paperwork has started. |
| What counts as best case | For example: qualified, proposal reviewed, likely this period if one more thing goes right. |
| Forecast cadence | Day and time of the weekly forecast call, and when the number is locked for the month or quarter. |
Fill it in online
Type into the template, or load the worked example and edit it. Nothing you enter is stored or sent anywhere: it stays in this browser tab until you copy, download or print it.
Empty fields copy as {{placeholders}} so you can see what is left to fill in.
Formulas
The maths behind each method.
| Metric | Formula | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Weighted pipeline | Sum of (deal amount x stage probability) | Stage probability = deals that reached the stage and closed won / deals that reached the stage. |
| Commit forecast | Closed won to date + deals called commit | The number you expect to land. |
| Gap to target | Target minus commit | If best case cannot cover it, you need new pipeline now. |
| Activity-based forecast | Expected held meetings x meeting to opportunity rate x win rate x average deal size | Nousu's published meeting to opportunity figure for phone-sourced meetings is 50%. |
| Forecast accuracy | Actual closed won / commit forecast at the start of the period | Track it every period. Aim for close to 100% either way. |
Worked example
An Australian B2B company using outsourced SDRs. The company is described, not named, and the figures are illustrative.
Worked example: a Sydney data analytics consultancy
A Sydney data and analytics consultancy sells fixed-scope projects and retainers to mid-market companies in NSW and VIC. An outsourced SDR team books meetings for two partners who sell. The quarter target is $450,000. This is the forecast at week eight.
Deals and probabilities are illustrative. Probabilities come from the firm's previous four quarters.
1. Forecasting methods compared
| Method | How it works | Best for | Weakness | Use it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weighted pipeline | Deal value x stage probability, summed | Sanity check on commit | Treats every proposal the same | Check |
| Forecast categories | Each deal called commit, best case or pipeline | The weekly forecast call | Partner optimism | Primary |
| Historical run rate | Same quarter last year plus growth | Board planning | Firm doubled its sales team since | Not this year |
| Deal-level review | Partners test each deal over $50,000 | Large projects | Takes an hour | Yes, over $50,000 |
| Activity-based | Next quarter meetings x 50% x 30% x $60,000 | Next quarter | Rates still settling | For next quarter |
2. Deal forecast sheet
| Deal | Stage | Amount | Close date | Category | Stage probability | Weighted amount | Next step and date | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance broker data platform | Commit | $120,000 | 20 June | Commit | 80% | $96,000 | Signature meeting 18 June | Legal review of liability clause |
| Retail group pricing model | Proposal | $85,000 | 27 June | Best case | 55% | $46,750 | Finance review 12 June | Budget may move to July |
| Logistics dashboard retainer | Proposal | $60,000 | 30 June | Best case | 55% | $33,000 | Workshop 10 June | New stakeholder joined |
| Health network data audit | Qualified | $70,000 | 30 June | Pipeline | 25% | $17,500 | Scope call 14 June | No confirmed budget |
3. Forecast summary
| Line | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Target for the period | $450,000 | Quarter target |
| Closed won to date | $190,000 | Three projects signed |
| Commit | $310,000 | $190,000 + $120,000 |
| Best case | $455,000 | Commit + $85,000 + $60,000 |
| Weighted pipeline | $383,250 | $190,000 + weighted open deals |
| Gap to target | $140,000 | Needs both best case deals |
4. Forecast rules
- What counts as commit
- Statement of work reviewed by the buyer, budget confirmed by finance, start date agreed.
- What counts as best case
- Proposal reviewed, budget holder engaged, decision expected this quarter.
- Forecast cadence
- Monday 9am, 30 minutes. Number locked on the last Friday of each month.
What to notice
- Commit at $310,000 and weighted at about $383,000 tell the same story: the quarter lands only if both best case deals close. That is the conversation for the Monday call.
- The activity-based line is for next quarter. It showed that the meetings already booked would only produce about half of next quarter's target, which is why the partners added an SDR calling block in June.
How to use it, step by step
- Pick a primary and a check method. Most teams use forecast categories as primary and weighted pipeline as the check. Write both down.
- Set probabilities from history. For each stage, divide deals that went on to close won by deals that reached the stage, over the last four quarters.
- Write commit and best case rules. Make them buyer-based and specific. A deal is commit because of what the buyer has done, not how the AE feels.
- List every deal closing this period. Stage, amount, close date, category, next step with a date, and the main risk.
- Calculate the summary. Closed won, commit, best case, weighted pipeline and the gap to target.
- Run the weekly forecast call. Challenge each commit and best case deal against the rules, then lock the number at month end.
- Measure accuracy. At the end of each period compare actual with the commit you started with, and adjust probabilities or rules.
Common mistakes
CRM default probabilities
Default stage percentages are guesses. Use your own close rates by stage.
Close dates that never move back
Deals that slip every month should drop a category. Track how often each date has moved.
Forecasting only this quarter
By the time this quarter is short, it is too late. Use the activity-based method to see next quarter early.
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Want the meetings, not just the template?
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In our data from 218,000+ dials into Australian businesses, Australian callers booked 1.3 meetings per 100 dials, against 0.3 for offshore teams. Pricing is starting at $7,000 a month.
FAQ
Sales forecast template questions
Straight answers from the team that runs outbound for Australian B2B companies.
Still have questions?
Book a 30-minute callWeighted pipeline, forecast categories (commit, best case, pipeline), historical run rate, deal-level review and activity-based forecasting. Most B2B teams use one as primary and another as a check.
There is no single most accurate method. Accuracy comes from consistent rules and clean data. Comparing a judgement-based method such as forecast categories with a maths-based one such as weighted pipeline catches most errors.
Multiply each open deal's value by the probability for its stage, then add them up. Set the probabilities from your own history: the share of deals that reached each stage and went on to close won.
Commit is what you expect to land, based on buyer evidence such as confirmed budget, approvers and a signature date. Best case adds deals that could close this period if one more thing goes right.
Weekly, in a short forecast call. Lock the number at the end of each month so you can measure accuracy.
Use forecast categories with strict rules, and an activity-based forecast built from meetings and conversion assumptions. Replace assumptions with real rates after each quarter.
Meetings booked this month become pipeline next month and revenue a cycle later. The activity-based method converts expected meetings into future revenue so you can see a shortfall a quarter early.
Need a team to run the plan?
Book a 30-minute call. We will map your market and buyers and show you what a phone-first campaign would book.
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